Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 3.976081 4.335156 4.732574 5.209203 5.770987 6.419494 7.235983
2025-01-05 3.425191 3.876991 4.410745 5.100877 5.990321 7.130150 8.760749
2025-01-12 3.076738 3.565490 4.167635 4.986700 6.111744 7.673102 10.157122
2025-01-19 2.794794 3.290596 3.919239 4.805605 6.081582 7.965236 11.238976
2025-01-26 2.672896 3.200027 3.889169 4.899786 6.434184 8.872174 13.616806
2025-02-02 2.608006 3.173524 3.935542 5.098603 6.966691 10.188908 17.388589
2025-02-09 2.527576 3.116557 3.930177 5.214668 7.382214 11.416751 21.800460
2025-02-16 2.407562 2.994644 3.819232 5.151383 7.478690 12.060151 25.272759
2025-02-23 2.307655 2.893531 3.729182 5.108795 7.600932 12.790029 29.730183
2025-03-02 2.215910 2.797883 3.639169 5.054971 7.690938 13.476429 34.924860
2025-03-09 2.133832 2.711181 3.555981 5.002953 7.774336 14.176499 41.356845
2025-03-16 2.069571 2.646738 3.502083 4.994737 7.942642 15.155994 51.446649
2025-03-23 2.027122 2.613477 3.496331 5.073858 8.315833 16.894459 73.406142
2025-03-30 1.949904 2.524305 3.396227 4.973490 8.284110 17.432304 89.221004
2025-04-06 1.876820 2.438120 3.296022 4.864223 8.216281 17.841690 107.893077
2025-04-13 1.795901 2.336860 3.166391 4.690373 7.976832 17.595176 116.648090
2025-04-20 1.772123 2.321907 3.176672 4.780820 8.374384 19.824001 220.806923
2025-04-27 1.767911 2.336575 3.236242 4.971600 9.060581 23.765982 1176.406955
2025-05-04 1.749200 2.327432 3.254769 5.082879 9.572593 27.551892 NaN
2025-05-11 1.702917 2.272654 3.191957 5.022212 9.604246 28.945256 NaN
2025-05-18 1.662539 2.225833 3.140660 4.981375 9.686644 30.765373 NaN
2025-05-25 1.622712 2.178509 3.086265 4.929750 9.730063 32.449457 NaN
2025-06-01 1.585274 2.133800 3.034484 4.879843 9.771663 34.237692 NaN